Australia set to surpass 50% renewables generation by 2050

Australia is on course to reach 52% renewable electricity generation by 2030 even without new federal energy targets, according to recent modelling by energy analysts RepuTex.

There are no plans to replace the current federal renewable energy target which expires in 2020, however the uptake of wind, solar and hydro will continue to be driven by state level targets and support schemes.

These support schemes and rooftop solar installations will reduce wholesale prices from AUS$85 per MWh to $70 per MWh over the next three years, which could make coal and gas-fired power less competitive, RepuTex said.

The modelling found that current policies, including renewable energy targets in Queensland and Victoria, were likely to drive about 13GW of new renewables capacity by 2030, in addition to 6GW of renewable capacity currently in development.

However, the analysts warned that without a federal energy policy framework in place, a ‘boom-bust’ renewable energy investment cycle could take shape beyond 2020.

“Without a plan to prepare for the exit of fossil fuel generation we forecast a return to a boom-bust investment cycle, with elevated wholesale prices and increased volatility, rather than a more orderly transition,” said RepuTex’s head of research Bret Harper.